If you’re long this market- why?

What are the upside catalysts?

Maybe the better question is: what are the catalysts to the downside?

These new cuts will guarantee government layoffs and that was one of the few bright spots for jobs.

While the government sheds jobs and programs unemployment benefits wind down as well. This one, two punch will affect consumer spending, it can only go down.

Maybe even worse is that overall consumer sentiment is shot, the pessimism is so thick in the nation, it is palpable. Consumer spending is going to go into the toilet.

One could argue we needed more stimulus and an extension of benefits for those out of work, in order to increase tax revenues, you need to spend money to make money, and that is the most frustrating aspect of the entire debate. While all of this is going on we can’t forget about the mess in the euro zone and the potential for a credit downgrade in the US.

Market optimists will say that it’s all baked in, that the debt ceiling debate is over, and that this plan is better than no plan. I disagree on all of these points, I see huge downside and minimum upside- is anyone expecting the DOW to reach all time highs in this environment?

With all that said; I see one positive, just one.

Inflation adjusted, the indices are in the toilet and they haven’t moved in ten years. DOW 11k today and DOW 11k in 2000 is not equivalent if you look at the price of oil, gold, or almost any other commodity in that same 11 year span, for Pete's sake, look at what the dollar was worth in 2000 compared to today!